Game Theory

Dr. Lena Marsh had spent eleven years studying the way people misrepresent themselves, and eighteen published papers arriving at what she considered a reasonably accurate taxonomy of deception. She could identify a motivated false narrative in a clinical interview within four minutes. She had designed the assessment protocol that three mental health trusts now used for evaluating witness reliability in family court proceedings. She was, by training, experience, and professional reputation, not an easy person to deceive.

None of this protected her.


She met David Crane at a symposium in Lisbon. The event was interdisciplinary � psychologists, sociologists, a small cohort of legal professionals � which was how, on the first evening, she found herself talking for two hours with a man whose background was civil litigation. He was attentive, well-read, and precise in the way she associated with people who had been formally trained to construct arguments. She found him interesting. Later, reviewing her own account of the evening, she would identify this as the first significant moment: he had seemed interesting before he had given her adequate reason to find him so.

"What do you find interesting," he had asked, "about the research itself? Not what you study � what about it holds you."

It was a small distinction that almost no one made. She had answered honestly, at length, in a way that she did not often permit herself with new acquaintances. He had listened without redirecting.


Over the following eight months she had learned, gradually, a version of who he was: a strategic thinker, constitutionally careful, not given to enthusiasm or excess. He did not love many things, but the things he valued he protected with a precision that she had found, initially, admirable. He had few close friends. He was not needy. He asked thoughtful questions and retained the answers.

He had, she recalled later, never once appeared to need anything from her that she was not prepared to give. This had seemed, at the time, like an unusual and mature form of consideration. She had thought: this is what a person looks like when they are not trying to extract something. It had not occurred to her that it might also be what a person looks like when they are very patient.

In the seventh month he mentioned, briefly, that he was involved in civil litigation connected to a former business partner. A dispute over attribution and methodology in a consulting context � he did not invite questions and she did not press. She knew he kept his professional life separate, and she had respected that.

In the eighth month he asked if she would be willing to look at something. A behavioural assessment that had been submitted as part of the proceedings. He was frustrated, he said, by the report's methodology: he thought it was poor work, and he thought she would see it immediately.

She read it. He was right: the methodology was poor. He had sent her the document via her institutional email address, which she had not questioned; she responded through the same account, to be professional, with three paragraphs identifying the specific methodological flaws, citing the relevant literature.

She pressed send. Two weeks later, she received notification from his opposing counsel's firm that she had been named as a contributing expert and that her written analysis had been entered into proceedings as Exhibit 14.


She spent three days reviewing the eight months in sequence, with the same methodical attention she brought to clinical case material. She looked for the points at which the narrative could have been assembled differently � where a different reading was available, where the evidence would have supported another interpretation. She found very few such points. He had been consistent. He had been, in the language of her own field, a highly calibrated actor across an extended time frame.

He had asked about her research interests and remembered every answer. He had introduced her, at appropriate intervals, to people in his professional network, which had seemed like generosity. He had established, over months, the specific conditions under which she would respond to a request without applying her usual professional scrutiny. He had waited until those conditions were met.

She thought about the Lisbon question � what do you find interesting about the research, not what you study � and recognised it for what it had been: an intake assessment. A credentialing exercise. He had needed a psychologist with sufficient academic standing to produce an opinion that would carry evidentiary weight, and he had needed to acquire that opinion without paying for it in a manner that would create a professional relationship that could be disclosed.

She had been, in the formal game-theoretic sense, a resource. He had played a long strategy to acquire her at zero cost.


She wrote to opposing counsel and explained the circumstances of the communication, requesting its exclusion from evidence. She filed a notification with her professional body. She prepared a written account of the interaction, with dates and documentation, which she retained with her legal counsel in the event that the proceedings produced consequences she could not fully anticipate.

The following year she was invited to address a symposium � the same interdisciplinary format as the Lisbon event, though in Copenhagen � on the subject of what she called the epistemology of professional self-assessment. How confident, she asked her audience, should a trained expert be in their ability to apply their professional expertise to their own experience? What cognitive conditions allowed skilled practitioners to become highly functional subjects in the very scenarios they were trained to analyse?

The talk was well-received. Several attendees said it had changed something for them; she believed some of them. She was careful, during the evening that followed, about what she found interesting � and in which directions she allowed herself to be observed finding it.

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?? The Obsidian Circle

This Story Is an Adversary Origin

In the browser RPG Avalon, David Crane is a master strategist within the Obsidian Circle. He appears helpful � but every interaction with him is a version of the Lisbon question. Players who understand his game can turn his methods against him. Most don't.

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